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    THE BridgeNews FORUM: On farming, farm policy 
    and related agricultural issues. 
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* Britain Rallies Around A Week-Old White Calf That Somehow Missed 
  The Foot-And-Mouth Execution
 
 
    By David Walker, agricultural economist
    BridgeNews
    NORWICH, England--The photograph of a week-old white calf called
Phoenix on the front pages of many British newspapers is likely to signal
in most people's minds the end of the foot-and-mouth livestock crisis.
 
    Phoenix was found in a pile of cattle that had been put down in as a
preventive measure on a farm neighboring an actual case of the disease. 
She had been sedated prior to planned slaughter but had somehow 
missed the bullet.
 
    The owner appealed for her to be spared when the ministry vets arrived
to finish the job, and seemingly the press photographer got to know about
it. The official line was, of course, that of setting a precedent.
 
    Tony Blair, the British prime minister, on becoming aware of the
situation, however, immediately saw the political opportunity. He has
achieved savior status by implementing a policy of discretion for cattle
for the preventive cull, something that the government's chief scientific
advisor had suggested earlier in the day was premature.
 
    The prime minister also, it seems, acted without consulting his
minister of agriculture. This is, of course, the kind of political
interference that has bedeviled the outbreak ever since the politician
took over its management.
 
    Although the outbreak now seems to be on the wane, there have been
about 1,500 cases of the disease, more than two million livestock
slaughtered and as many as a further million under a voluntary animal
welfare program.
 
    Foot and mouth disease has been subject to abundant research over many
years and is well understood, and there is plenty of experience of dealing
with it. So this is hardly an encouraging performance.
 
    The outbreak did, of course, get well established before it was
discovered, which should be regarded as an explanation rather than an
excuse.
 
    But with a 2-to-14 day incubation period for the Pan-Asiatic strain of
the disease, and an eight-week lapse since the initial outbreak, it is
evident that current cases are either the result of many uncontrolled
generations of the disease, less than prompt detection or a bit of both.
 
    It was known from the start that control would require prompt and
unpopular measures with firm leadership. What was missing was the will or
the ability in political terms to get the job done.
 
    From the outset it was evident the government has been gambling by
cutting budgets for preventive measures. Control of meat imports from
countries where the disease is endemic had been superficial and
supervision of livestock most at risk (in this case, pigs fed swill under
license) had been poor.
 
    Within three days of the first case of foot and mouth being confirmed, 
however, a restriction on all livestock movement in the United Kingdom was
in place and the decision made to find and slaughter all known contact
animals.
 
    It seemed then that the ministry of agriculture, given rein, stood a
chance of getting the outbreak under control promptly. Early claims by the
minister of agriculture that the outbreak was under control, which were
even suspect at the time, were not helpful and undermined confidence.
 
    And when Tony Blair, the British prime minister, personally took on
responsibility it was evident the kind of decisive decision-making needed
would be well and truly mired in politics with the kind of trust needed
for prompt, difficult and unpopular decisions shot.
 
    While Blair and his government have a reputation as masters of
political spin, it was no surprise that in this instance their spin only
created mud and an ever deeper rut of despair. Decision were made, and
frequently deferred it seems, at daily meeting sometimes chaired by Blair
at the cabinet office by a committee code named "cobra"! 
 
    The result was that every decision from precautionary slaughter to
siting and methods of disposal of carcasses seems to have been publicly
challenged by someone, resulting in inevitable delays.
 
    Anybody who thought they had some kind of claim on government prior to
a rapidly approaching general election emerged from the woodwork. The
recent prolonged and confused debate on vaccination epitomized the
challenge.
 
    The limited use of vaccination was eventually recommended by the
government in mid-April, but only if the decision was supported by
farmers. Farmers understandably put little faith in such a politically
tainted move and the government dropped the issue.
 
    This may be seen by some, perhaps cynically, as buck passing by the
government. An equally probable scenario, however, was that the government
realized it would be ineffective if it was not supported by farmers.
 
    The motivation for the prime minister's knee-jerk decision to take
personal responsibility was almost certainly to avoid the criticism the
previous government and particularly the ministry of agriculture received
over its handling of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (mad cow disease) 
epidemic.
 
    It was, however, misguided. A major difference between the two
situations is that BSE was not understood. Hence there was uncertainty as
to necessary action as the nature of the disease unfolded. With 20-20
hindsight, it can be seen that errors were made, which were generally
attributed to lobbying by the ministry's clients. 
 
    With foot and mouth disease, the industry knew what needed to be done
and initially had enough confidence in the ministry staff to get the job
done. As much was evident during the early days of the outbreak.
 
    As soon as the outbreak was politicized, however, confidence
evaporated and decision making became hampered by a host of extraneous
political considerations. The bottom line is that it is futile to worry
about water damage when fighting a fire.  End 


    DAVID WALKER, an agricultural economist, lives on his family's farm  
outside Norwich, England. He recently served as senior economist in London  
for the Home-Grown Cereals Authority and previously was executive director 
of  the Alberta Grain Commission in Canada. He also maintains a Web site 
at http://www.openi.co.uk/. His views are not necessarily those of BridgeNews, 
whose  ventures include the Internet site http://www.bridge.com/. 
  
    OPINION ARTICLES and letters to the editor are welcome. Send 
submissions to Sally Heinemann, editorial director, BridgeNews, 3 World 
Financial Center, 200 Vesey St., 28th Floor, New York, N.Y. 10281-1009. 
You may also call (212) 372-7510, fax (212)  372-2707 or send e-mail to 
opinion@bridge.com. 
  
    EDITORS: A color photo of the author is available from KRT Photo 
Service.